More than half the people of the world rely on rice for food. This proportion is constantly rising as people moving out of poverty can afford to substitute rice for less desirable grains - this has happened to 100 million Chinese who have moved into cities and relative middle class.
Yet the amount of rice is not growing to meet the increasing population and demand for the plant. Limits to suitable land, drought and less predictable water management, together with the move towards growing plants for biofuels are all having a negative impact on the amount of rice being grown. Last year, the total amount of rice grown increased but not by so much as to meet increased demand, resulting in depleted stocks in warehouses. This year, the total amount of rice grown is scheduled to be less than last year. People, unsure of the future, inevitably think about hoarding what rice they can get and so go and buy whatever is available. This makes the situation worse and, although panic buying has not yet quite broken out, there is no guarantee that it will not do so in the future.
Already, governments in China, India, Egypt, Cambodia and Vietnam have imposed some form of export ban or similar measure. The government of Thailand, which is the world's largest rice exporter, is discussing means of preventing hoarding and is subsidizing the provision of lower-quality rice for poorer people. Rumours of a potential rice shortage are rife, although officially discounted out of hand. For those peasant farmers in northern provinces such as Chiang Mai, where fighting between neighbouring villages for access to water has already broken out, the idea of a rice shortage is a very frightening one. Even in a country developing as well and as rapidly as Thailand, the line between survival and disaster for the millions of subsistence farmers can be very narrow indeed. Every year, flooding causes many farmers and their families to lose everything they have and then there is a wave of suicides.
So far, there are no reports of rice riots in Asia, although the situation surrounding rice distribution by government agencies has been described as tense. However, if the projected 40% increase in rice prices (as well as other foodstuffs) does take place, then there will be many desperate people. The poorest will of course suffer the most. The proportion of their income spent on food is already very high and is set to get higher still. Money will have to be saved on education, health and transportation. Those poor, even if they can survive the crisis, will have no chance to escape from poverty.
