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Ron Paul Demonstrates Inaccuracy of Political Polling

Visible evidence of Presidential Candidate Ron Paul's popularity demonstrates that polling figures can't be taken at face value.

For those following the presidential campaign of Texas Congressman Ron Paul there is little questioning his status as a top tier candidate. Evidence supporting this conclusion is constantly growing, and after this past week's events even the main stream media is beginning to recognize what Paul's supporters have known for quite some time.

The historic week began for Paul this previous Monday, when the ten-term Congressman raised over $4.3 million in contributions in a single twenty-four hour period. The donations, collected entirely through the campaign's website, came from over 35,000 supporters, 17,000 of which donated to the campaign for the first time.

This display of muscle would not stand alone, however, as six days later a rally held at Philadelphia's Independence Mall would draw over 5,000 supporters in a celebration centered on Veteran's Day and the candidate known for his uncompromising support of Constitutional principles and the ideas of liberty upon which the country was founded.

These two astonishing events, however, are only the most recent accolades for Paul, who is commonly referred to as a long shot by popular media outlets. His supporters have, for example, formed over 1,100 meet up groups throughout the country with over 61,000 volunteers. Paul's YouTube channel has over 36,000 subscribers, and his videos have generated an amazing 6 million views. And Paul's website, according to Alexa statistics, receives more hits than all of the other candidates for President combined - in both parties.

All of this support, however, does not seem to translate to success in the national telephone polls so commonly cited in discussions of campaign success. And while Paul has been climbing in these polls, he still stands around 5 or 6%, placing him fifth behind the candidates more commonly touted by media.

These figures, however, might have more to do with the way polls are taken than the actual amount of supporters Paul has amassed throughout the country. The polls, for example, generally exclude cellular telephone numbers, discounting the young and the generally affluent segments of the population.

The polls also tend to focus solely on people who have voted in previous party primaries, which would exclude moderates who don't affiliate themselves with a particular party, as well as those who haven't voted in the past or tend to vote independent.

There is no questioning at this point that Ron Paul is a candidate with a legitimate chance of securing the Republican Party nomination, regardless of his relatively low polling figures. To understand this one simply needs to look beyond these figures to find the strongest example of grassroots support ever demonstrated in US politics.

And for those unwilling to see the signs behind the polls, there may be a big surprise awaiting them when the early primary states begin to release data representing a Ron Paul popularity already visible to those willing to look.

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Comments (5)
#1 by Why are pollsters silent on the cell phone issue?, Nov 13, 2007
One thing in support of this theory is the following:

Why are the MSM Pollsters ignoring the accusation that they only phone landlines? Why doesn't Rasmussen or Zogby issue a press release saying that they have factored in a "cell phone population"?
#2 by Deborah T, Nov 13, 2007
And why don\'t the pollsters include people who identify themselves as Republicans, instead of those of voted in the last election or primary? I know tons of Republicans who avoided the last election run because they were/are so fed up with their own party. I am one of them. Don\'t we count?
#3 by Chris, Nov 13, 2007
1st they don't use cell phones
PERIOD NO IFS ANDS OR BUTS ABOUT IT

2nd NO YOU DON'T COUNT THEY DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR THOUGHTS BECAUSE YOU NEGLECTED TO DO YOUR PATRIOTIC DUTY BY VOTING IN THE LAST ELECTION SO TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION


NO

YOU DON'T MATTER BECAUSE YOUR NOW LESS LIKELY TO VOTE AGAIN
#4 by Joe, Nov 13, 2007
"1st they don't use cell phones
PERIOD NO IFS ANDS OR BUTS ABOUT IT"

Then their polls are inaccurate.

"2nd NO YOU DON'T COUNT THEY DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR THOUGHTS BECAUSE YOU NEGLECTED TO DO YOUR PATRIOTIC DUTY BY VOTING IN THE LAST ELECTION SO TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION
YOU DON'T MATTER BECAUSE YOUR NOW LESS LIKELY TO VOTE AGAIN"

You don't have a patriotic duty to choose between big government Democrats and big government Republicans. The GOP abandoned people like me and Deborah, and it paid the price last year, but Ron Paul is bringing us back. We ARE a factor, whether you like it or not. If the party continues to be run by nation-builders who spend our tax money like liberals, true conservatives will once again sit out this election... unless we're able to get a Goldwater Republican like Ron Paul to win the primaries.
#5 by bruce, Nov 14, 2007
does anyone even use landlines anymore for things other than computers and fax machines or pay phones?

cell phones are better, and for many people, cheaper, and clearly the younger, smarter, more active people use them religiously. also, note that the world-wide cell phone population is at about 3,000,000,000 -- roughly half of the world population, and the 1/2 billion infants and 2 billion who make under $2/day can\'t use them...so that\'s about EVERYBODY who can.

plus what about the people who weren\'t old enough to vote before, and those who move around a lot, etc. it\'s time for someone to do some new polls...maybe just call every number combination, 0000, 0001, 0002, 0003....boy that took some serious intellectual consideration to come up with that idea, i\'ll tell ya!

don\'t trust the MSM, ever.
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