The current civil and political situation in Myanmar carries much more political and economic potential than one would initially assume. The unrest presents an opportunity for several major powers, namely the Russia, China, India, and the United States. Of these, the power most likely to profit from the situation is the Russian Federation. Before delving into the perceived interests of the Russian Federation, an overview of the current situation in Myanmar is necessary.
Less than two weeks ago, the price of natural gas and oil in Myanmar rose between one hundred and five hundred percent, depending upon the source. Spurred on by the extreme rises in price, Buddhist monks and regular civilians began protesting against the government, in response, the military junta currently in power brought on a full scale crackdown against the rioting, which has now incurred the attention of the international community.
Especially interesting is the involvement of the Russian Federation, which is working in concert with the People's Republic of China, in order to attain its interests. For Russia, Myanmar holds a special business interest. Over the past few years, the Russian Federation has entered into business dealings with Myanmar. For example, in May, nuclear equipment export monopoly Atomstroyexport signed an agreement to build a nuclear research center in Myanmar. Zarubezhneft, Russia's leading foreign trade company in oil and gas sector, natural gas producer Itera, and Silver Wave Sputnik Petroleum, are currently producing Myanmar's offshore oil deposits alongside the Chinese company PetroChina, after having had connected with the south Russian republic of Kalmykia. Also, Myanmar bought 15 Russian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters for about $150 million in 2001, and is now negotiating with Russia's state-controlled arms exporter Rosoboronexport the establishment of an air defense system comprising Tor-M1 and Buk-M1-2 missile systems. These business dealings, with a special influence on the energy related deals are especially important to the Russian Federation.
Russia, who is currently one of the leading exporters of natural gas, is on the path to achieving a monopoly on energy throughout Europe (see "Economic Brief: The Implications of a Russian-led Gas Cartel."), is most likely utilizing Myanmar and the Burmese oil and natural gas deposits (which it has gained access to after having negotiating the placement of the aforementioned air defense systems) to further its goals of monopolizing Europe and possibly expanding its economic and political interest into the East. It is also important to note the establishment of state-controlled air defense systems in Myanmar, in order to gain access Burmese oil. It is possible that these air defense systems will serve other purposes, such as; establishing bases to counter growing Chinese power or American influence, much like the United States has done in Belarus after establishing military bases, and continues to do in Taiwan.
Oddly, very little in the way of evidence is offered up by the Russian government through rhetoric, only after careful analysis is a possible position discovered. Recently, the Russian foreign ministry released a statement that said, ''Urgent steps must be taken to prevent the escalation of tensions' in Myanmar. At face value this is a contradiction to what President Vladimir Putin has been quoted by a Russian news agency as saying that it would be "premature" to speak of international sanctions, involving Myanmar. After a more careful analysis of the two statements, what had once seemed contradictory is now revealed to be complimentary to one another and the possible strategy that the Russian Federation will pursue.
Analysis of the quotes will show that, Russia does indeed support an urgent response to stop the escalation of hostilities, that is, to end the demonstrations and reestablish a measure of stability in Myanmar; also, they do not support the implication of sanctions against Myanmar. So in essence, Russia holds interests in the stabilization and continued unsanctioned existence of Myanmar's junta government, so that they may continue with the acquisition of Burmese oil, and a stable ally in the region.
Opposition to this has come from several sources, one being the United States, who has called for immediate action and sanctions against the military junta in Myanmar. The possible interests of the United States are a little more difficult to decipher than those of the Russian Federation. The United States is most likely interested in Myanmar because of Russia's interests. Because Russia is a rising power, and the current junta in Myanmar is friendly with Russia, the United States is interested in order to possibly undermine the Russian Federation. If the current regime in Myanmar is disposed, it will be possible that a democratic government will come to power. Historically, democracies are much friendlier to one another. The democracy that could come to fruition would also be much more predisposed to be friendly towards the United States than to the Russian Federation, mainly because the Russian Federation has supported the current junta, and aligned itself alongside of China, who has used its veto power in the UN Security Council in order to allow Myanmar's many human right's violations to be overlooked. This possibility of a democratic government, and it's possible disposition towards friendly relations with the United States, is also an important driving force between the Russian Federation and China's actions in Myanmar.
Another source of opposition has come from India. The reason for India's involvement is the veritable backstab by Myanmar concerning the removal of India from the status of "preferential buyer" in regards to the offshore oilfields off the coast of Myanmar. After being removing India from preferential buyer status, the junta entered into negotiations with Russian and Chinese oil companies as was previously mentioned. The possible Indian interests are limited at best, after being pushed aside by China (See "Pipeline Politics: India and Myanmar"), it is most likely that the Indian government opposes Russia and China in an attempt to maintain some form of business relations with the tiny Asian nation.
Currently, with the lack of harsh or committed rhetoric, it is difficult to tell what actions and strategies the Russian Federation will adopt when taking action around Myanmar, whether or not that strategy will be and active intervention or a more passive campaign of rhetoric is yet to be seen. It is also difficult to tell as to whether the involvement of India and the United States will play much a role in situation at hand. However, it is an assured statement to say that the Russian Federation does have extended economic interests, which will definitely be considered to be vital to the interests of the Russian Federation.
